David Parsons, June 3, 2005

A special United Nations team verified last week that the Syrian army had completed its long-awaited withdrawal from Lebanon, but was unable to confirm whether Damascus had removed its extensive network of clandestine intelligence agents who have effectively controlled Lebanese affairs for years. The remarkable confluence of pressures that finally loosened Syria's stranglehold over its Arab neighbor must now be directed at disarming Hizb'Allah and assuring that the Lebanese people, Christians included, can determine once more their own nation's destiny.

The Assad regime controlled most of Lebanon for the better part of three decades and treated the country as the '19th province' of Syria, siphoning off its resources and using it as a springboard for proxy attacks on Israel. In that time span, Lebanon's delicate demographic balance was irreversibly altered by the flight of Christians, the rapid natural growth of the radical Shi'ite population and the import of nearly a million Sunni Muslim workers from Syria.

Syrian hegemony over Lebanon went largely unchallenged until Israel abandoned its security zone in southern Lebanon in May 2000, after which the Christian and Druze communities in particular began voicing their opposition to the continued presence of other 'foreign' forces still inside the country. Yet each time they dared organize a freedom rally, their hopes were quickly doused by much larger, intimidating counter-protests staged by Hizb'Allah and other pro-Syrian elements.

But at long last, the recent "Cedar Revolution" - triggered in February by a national outpouring of grief over the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri - was able to dislodge the Syrian army and begin restoring hope for the future, largely due to the timely convergence of a triumvirate of outside pressures.

Firstly, the Bush Administration's determined campaign to spread democracy and freedom worldwide has been bearing fruit in many places, most notably the "Orange Revolution" in The Ukraine and the landmark national elections in Iraq. Without doubt, the sight of brave Iraqis risking terrorist threats and proudly displaying their inked fingers after voting this winter stirred the longing for liberty within the watching Lebanese.

The United Nations then took an unusually strong stand in demanding Syrian compliance with Security Council Resolution 1559, passed last September and calling for the end of Syria's occupation and domination of Lebanon, among other provisions. The rare display of UN resolve arose out of the world body's sense that it owed a special duty to the Lebanese people, in that Hariri's death came as a result of a Council decision.

The wealthy and popular national figure had privately lobbied France to lend its crucial backing to 1559, and a UN fact-finding mission uncovered evidence that the Assad regime had threatened Hariri with "physical harm" for doing so. While not expressly blaming Damascus for the horrific roadside bombing that killed him, the severely critical UN report accused Syria of creating the tense atmosphere in Lebanon that provided the backdrop for his assassination.

Finally, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad caved in to economic pressure from the European Union, which made its own rare stand in confronting a repressive Arab government by conditioning a new EU-Syria trade deal on compliance with UNSC resolution 1559. Syrian officials had scoffed at the American economic sanctions enacted by Congress last year, since US trade with Syria is so meager, but loss of access to the much more lucrative European markets could have cost Damascus over $1 billion annually in trade and aid packages.

Assad stubbornly held on as long as he could, and Hizb'Allah made a strong, menacing showing in the streets once again, but this time an emboldened alignment of Christians, Druze and secular Sunnis turned the tide, drawing over one million protestors into central Beirut in an amazing display of 'people power.'

The Lebanese are now heading to the polls in their first free elections in 15 years, and opinion surveys indicate the pro-independence alliance will likely win a majority of seats in the new parliament and begin a house cleaning of Syrian lackeys from the military, intelligence services and bureaucratic ranks.

This majority favors restoring and preserving the delicate domestic equilibrium that graced Lebanon as the world's only Arab democracy until the tragic civil war erupted in 1975. All these ambitions remain tall orders, however, requiring a unity across fragile sectarian divides that have easily exploded into bitter feuds in the past - a unity that also will be sorely tested by the Syrian Ba'athists and their Shi'ite proxies in Lebanon.

Lebanon's Christian community must do everything in its power to preserve the newfound unity. They have paid a heavy price and lost 60% of their community to foreign lands, but now have a chance to reestablish their proud, ancient roots in the land of the cedars.

But cracks are already showing in the alliance, as former army commander Michel Aoun, a prominent Christian figure just returned from years of exile in France, has decided to run on his own ticket rather than join the umbrella party Al-Mustaqbal ("The Future"), headed by the late Rafik Hariri's son, Saad.

The Hariri family also owns a television station and a newspaper by the name "Future", and is said to be worth one-quarter of Lebanon's annual GDP. As champions of the secular Muslim community and financiers of Beirut's current renaissance, it seems this family indeed plays a pivotal role in whether the battered nation can secure a brighter future.

The primary obstacle in the way right now are the clerics and armed minions of Hizb'Allah, who are defiantly resisting calls to disarm, as also demanded by UN resolution 1559. Last week, the leader of the Iranian-backed militia, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, confirmed persistent media reports that his group does have 12,000 rockets and missiles capable of saturating northern Israel. "All of the north of occupied Palestine, its settlements, airports, seaports, fields, factories, and farms is under the feet and hands of the Islamic resistance," Nasrallah boasted openly.

Hizb'Allah is seeking legitimacy as a political faction inside the parliament while retaining its freedom of action to strike Israel when and how it chooses. They pose a threat not only to the Jewish state but also to Lebanon internally, and constitute a dangerous model for Hamas - which also now seeks political legitimacy in the Palestinian legislature while retaining its independence to act against Israel.

It may be too much to expect a quick thaw in Israeli-Lebanese relations following the current round of national elections. But it is reasonable to expect the United States, the United Nations and the European Union to maintain their triangular pressure on Syria and Hizb'Allah that has brought new hope to Lebanon.

David Parsons is public relations officer for the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem.

Copyright © 2005 International Christian Embassy Jerusalem