David Parsons, International Christian Embassy Jerusalem
February 22, 2005

A week of unmolested mass protests since the brutal slaying of former prime minister Rafik Hariri has emboldened Lebanon's opposition to declare an 'intifada' against Syrian hegemony, but the Assad regime's stranglehold over the country runs a lot deeper than the 15,000 troops garrisoned in Lebanon.

Unprecedented Protests

Tens of thousands of Lebanese gathered in Beirut on Monday at the scene of last week's powerful car bombing that targeted the billionaire Hariri, boldly demanding a Syrian pullout and an international probe into the assassination. Riot police made a show of force yesterday, but unlike past instances of anti-Syrian protests, so far there have been no arrests and no countervailing demonstrations in favor of Damascus.

With parliamentary elections expected in May, the Lebanese opposition on Friday made an unprecedented call for a "democratic and peaceful intifada (uprising) of independence" from the current Lebanese government and its Syrian overlords for their "crimes."

Led by Druze legislator Walid Jumblatt, the growing ranks of the Lebanese opposition include Sunni Muslim supporters of Hariri and members of the Druze and Christian minorities. The multi-sectarian coalition is hoping to capitalize on the nationwide outpouring of grief over Hariri and other recent developments to create momentum for a Ukrainian-style 'orange revolution' - this one flying patriotic red-and-white.

US President George W. Bush is pushing for broad democratic changes in the Arab world and appears increasingly riled by Syrian backing of terrorist attacks in Iraq and Israel. With atypical backing from France, the UN Security Council also adopted resolution 1559 last fall demanding a Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon and the disarming of the Shi'ite militia Hizb'Allah.

'Cutthroat Regime'

Many Lebanese believe Damascus was behind Hariri's death, especially since Syria's state-run media recently blamed him for secretly persuading French President Jacques Chirac to endorse the UN resolution. Hariri, who resigned his post as prime minister last year to protest Syria's intervention to extend the presidency of loyalist Emile Lahoud, was expected to lead the opposition in spring elections.

Reflecting the increased daring of the opposition, the Maronite church joined those accusing Syria of the assassination, calling it "the act of a cutthroat, dictatorial regime."

Syria continues to deny any involvement in the Hariri assassination and claims its forces are in Lebanon by request of the 'brotherly' Beirut government in order to provide stability.

But a Kuwaiti daily, Al-Siyasa, reported Sunday that the assassination was planned in the highest echelons of the Syrian military, led by Assaf Shawkat, the brother-in-law of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, and other high-ranking Syrian and Lebanese generals. Several hours after the car bombing, Assad's brother-in-law was appointed commander of Syrian army intelligence.

The (London) Times suggested Sunday that the Syrian military was acting to preserve its profits from the lucrative Lebanese drug trade, while the Daily Telegraph linked the car bombing to a Palestinian recruited in a radical pro-Syrian mosque in Beirut. A previously unknown group named "Victory and Jihad in Greater Syria" claimed responsibility for the powerful blast, which killed Hariri and 16 others as his motorcade sped along the capital's restored beachfront one week ago.

The Lebanese public's suspicions of Syrian involvement are backed by a clear pattern of assassinations of political opponents in Lebanon during the Assad dynasty. Bashar Assad's father Hafez used local proxies to murder Maronite leader and Lebanese President Bashir Gemayel in 1982 and Druze leader Kamal Jumblat in 1997, while other prominent figures like former army commander Michel Aoun have been forced into exile.

'Creeping Annexation'

The Assad regime views Lebanon as historically the '19th province' of Syria, and has drained Lebanon's prosperous free market to prop up its own faltering state-controlled economy.

Besides deploying as many as 40,000 uniformed troops in Lebanon since the country's bloody 15-year civil war, Syria also has saturated its weaker neighbor with thousands of agents from the Mukhabarat intelligence service and up to one million Syrians seeking better paying jobs. Most of these workers were Sunni Muslims, and many were granted Lebanese citizenship, irreversibly altering the nation's delicate demographic balance.

Prior to the outbreak of the Lebanese civil war in 1975, there was a basic equilibrium between the nation's three largest blocs - Christians, Sunnis and Shi'ites. Today, the Shi'ites are the largest plurality, the Sunni community has also gained, while the Christians have lost ground due to flight. An estimated 60% of Christians originally born in Lebanon now live abroad.

In addition, hundreds of Lebanese politicians, bureaucrats, clerics and military officers owe their positions to Syria and remain on the Assad payroll.

For now, Syria has two key allies in Iran and Hizb'Allah, who want to continue to threaten Israel from southern Lebanon. The radical terrorist group stands to lose its unique status as a political party with its own heavily armed militia if its patron Syria is forced to withdraw. Thus few Shi'ites have been seen among the massive street protests of recent days.

Due to past brief episodes of international pressure, Syria has redeployed its 15,000 uniformed troops still in Lebanon outside urban areas, where they are less visible today. But it will take much more than simply pulling these forces back into Syria to sever the Assad regime's unseen stranglehold over Lebanon.

"It's a creeping annexation," said former Lebanese President Amin Gemayel recently. "Syria considers its presence here not as something temporary, not as a foreign occupation, but as something natural. They think that Lebanon is a part of Syria."