Gary Fitleberg, December 12, 2004

According to the Associated Press, it's the type of scene that rattles Turkey's Western-looking establishment to the core: angry demonstrators raising their fists for Islam and waving posters supporting Chechen separatists and Arab "Palestinian" terrorist groups such as Hamas.

"Islamic resistance will win," chanted the protesters, including some women with green headbands adorned with Quranic verses - similar to those often worn by homicide bombers in farewell videos.

Riot police let the nearly 400 marchers join a bigger rally against the U.S. military occupation in Iraq. A few years ago, the guardians of Turkey's secular order may not have been so accommodating.

But powerful forces - the lure of Europe and the backlash of radical Islam - have reset the rules: wider freedoms to appease the European Union, higher stakes after Al Qaeda linked bombings last year, and greater potential complications for a nation that's been a historical gateway between the Muslim and Western worlds.

Islamists view Turkey as an open door for their objectives. "We could see a real showdown between Islamic values and Western values," said Ergil.

There already are skirmishes on smaller stages.

The Iraq war - strongly opposed by most Turks - offered a platform for radical Islamic groups to enter the public debate.

Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan - who has Islamist political roots - strained the country's military and commercial links with Israel earlier this year by equating attacks against Arab "Palestinians" to state terrorism. The comments, however, played well for their target audience: the Turkish street.

Arrests continue against suspected Islamic terrorist plotters or sympathizers. But, with the EU watching, there appears to be a red line - with Turkey balancing the needs of keeping itself and Europe safe from terrorists and avoiding any appearance of muffling dissenting voices.

Authorities have in particular avoided leaning too hard on the growing ranks of devout Islamic Turks - who form the base of Erdogan's support yet whose very conservatism often conflicts with the prime minister's reform drive.

Istanbul's Carsamba neighborhood is a case in point. Nearly the entire place pushes the Turkish establishment's old panic buttons.

Men openly wear skullcaps and religious-style robes - technically illegal for everyone but clerics inside mosques. Bookstores offer volumes about perceived "Zionist" conspiracies against Islam and extolling the Arab "Palestinian" Al Aqsa Intifada. A street peddler hawked CDs about Muslim commandos in Chechnya waging "holy war" against Russia and sermons from firebrand Turkish imams silenced by the state.

"These days, Turkey is like a firewall between radical Islam and the West," said Dogu Ergil, a political science professor at Ankara University. "The consequences if the firewall comes down are scary."

Turkey's radical Islamic fringe presents a daunting conundrum both for the government and for EU leaders weighing a Dec. 17 decision on whether to launch membership talks with Turkey: Europe insists that Turkey bolster its democracy by reining in its secularist military, but is that creating an opening for Muslim radicals who oppose democratic values?

Turkey has set the EU bar at all-or-nothing, rejecting suggestions by some European officials of a "privileged partnership" that falls short of membership. That unnerves some supporters who predict a political train wreck if EU talks start to unravel.

Pro-Islamic political groups in Turkey could find a springboard to reassert more power and seek stronger bonds with the wider Muslim world, including neighboring Iran, analysts and officials say.

Authorities, meanwhile, could confront new challenges to contain Turkish extremist cells - which remain on the margins yet struck hard last year on European soil with attacks on two synagogues, the British Consulate and the headquarters of London-based HSBC bank in Istanbul.

Some 60 people, including the British consul-general, were killed. Dozens of suspects are accused of links to Al-Qaida.

"A failure of the EU process would be seen by

Nearly every woman has a headscarf and many wear a full chador that hides all but their eyes. A five-minute cab ride brings the Turkey that many EU proponents want the world to see: miniskirts, designer stores and wine bars.

"Islam is reclaiming its rightful place in Turkey," said Kenan Alpay, an organizer of the Islamist marchers at the Dec. 5 demonstration in Istanbul. "We have been on the sidelines of politics and society too long. That's ending."

If it is, it is ending slowly - and with many powerful opponents in the way.

The military leads the forces committed to preserving the staunchly secular principles of modern Turkey, created in 1923 from the remains of the Ottoman Empire. The generals have stepped in before. Most recently, they helped give the boot in 1997 to the pro-Islamist government of Necmettin Erbakan, who stunned Turkey's NATO allies by choosing Iran for his first foreign visit as prime minister.

Turkish security officials also believe Iran supported or inspired waves of attacks in the 1990s against Western-minded politicians and intellectuals in Turkey.

For the moment, worries about Iran have faded. Authorities, instead, are focusing on other types of imported extremism - mostly from Turks who joined Islamic fighters in places such as Chechnya, Afghanistan or Iraq. Some of the key suspects in the November 2003 bombings were veterans guerrillas from these battlegrounds and a few met with Osama bin Laden, Turkish prosecutors claim.

Last month, the military chief of staff, Gen. Hilmi Ozkok, told the Turkish War Academy that neighboring countries are no longer seen as the top security threat and "terrorism (is) the first priority." The comments suggest Turkey could shift more of its huge defense budget to surveillance capabilities and rapid-reaction units.

"The real militant groups in Turkey are still marginal," said Metin Heper, who studies Islam and politics at Bilkent University in Ankara. "The question is how to make sure they remain there."

The answer for many is to remain on a European orientation.

Many Turks already see themselves as a step apart from the Middle East. They cite Turkey's NATO membership, cooperation with Israel and unyielding official secularism. There is also the belief that tolerance is an inherited trait from the multicultural Ottoman realm.

Ali Bardakoglu, head of Turkey's powerful religious affairs directorate, wonders if this tradition could be under threat if the EU keeps Turkey out of the fold.

"Inside and outside Turkey, radical Islamic movements will try to make the case that (the Muslim and Christian worlds) are incompatible," said Bardakoglu. "Rational attitudes will suffer."

Gary Fitleberg is a Political Analyst specializing in International Relations with emphasis on Middle East affairs.

Copyright © 2004 Gary Fitleberg