Gary Fitleberg, November 28, 2004

According to the Associated Press, Iran is bent on the intent of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

"A landmark deal aimed at freezing the development of Iranian nuclear weapons will fail," Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said in an interview published Sunday, despite a new Iranian willingness to push it through.

On November 7, Germany, France and Britain signed an agreement on behalf of the European Union committing Tehran to freeze uranium enrichment and all related activities, seemingly putting its nuclear program on hold.

The agreement was meant to conform to demands from the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, demanding that Iran stop all uranium enrichment.

On Sunday, Iran reversed an earlier decision and said it will not push to exempt about 20 centrifuges from the agreement. The centrifuges, which spin gas into enriched uranium, can be used to produce both low-grade nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material for nuclear warheads.

Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, designed to generate electricity.

In an interview with Newsweek magazine conducted before Sunday's decision, Sharon said he doubted the EU deal would be successful.

"Iran is making every effort to possess a nuclear weapon," he was quoted as saying. "It seems that the steps taken by the IAEA and the Europeans are insufficient to stop Iran's nuclear program."

Rather than the agreement, Sharon said, "the only real solution is a major international effort to exert economic and diplomatic pressure on Iran, and to bring the issue to the UN Security Council, where sanctions can be imposed."

For years, the Israeli government has been promoting the sanctions option, but many Middle East experts believe that any ban on Iranian oil exports - the only effective economic penalty that might be used against it - is almost certain to be rejected by an oil-starved world.

Estimated at 126 billion barrels, Iran's proven oil reserves are the second largest in the world, trailing only those of Saudi Arabia.

"Oil is the center of Iran's economy," said London-based oil consultant Peter Gignoux. "Sanctions would be extremely painful for it, particularly now with high oil prices."

However, said Gignoux, the likelihood of the UN Security Council imposing oil sanctions on Iran is virtually nonexistent. Such a step would cause oil prices to climb even further, undermining world economic growth, estimated at a relatively healthy 4 percent in 2004, he said.

Another possible response to the Iranian nuclear program - destroying Iran's nuclear installations with a single air strike as Israel did in Iraq in 1981- is also seen as problematical by many Israeli and foreign experts, because the sites are scattered or hidden, and intelligence about them is weak.

Gary Fitleberg is a Political Analyst specializing in International Relations with emphasis on Middle East affairs.

Copyright © 2004 Gary Fitleberg