Gary Fitleberg, September 19, 2004

Israel's chief of military intelligence said in remarks broadcast on Monday that if Iran's atomic program is allowed to continue, Iran will have the capability to independently develop nuclear weapons by early next year.

In a Sunday speech to the Israel-Jordan Chamber of Commerce, MI chief Aharon Ze'evi-Farkash said, "If the processes continue as we are currently seeing them, the coming half year with respect to Iran will determine if Iran will achieve in the spring of 2005 an non-conventional capability in the sphere of nuclear research and development, that is, it will no longer require external aid to reach an unconventional capability."

"This does not mean that it will have a bomb in 2005. It means that it will have all the means at its disposal to build a bomb,"

If Iran is not stopped, apparently by international efforts, he continued, "this may drag the region into a nuclear domino effect."

While the board of directors of the International Atomic Energy Agency meets this week, the United States is trying to round up a two-thirds majority to issue an ultimatum to Iran, the next step before the issue of Iran's nuclear weapons program reaches the UN Security Council.

The Security Council could impose sanctions on Iran due to violations of agreements regarding the inspection of its nuclear program, and its secret efforts to enrich uranium, which is necessary for the creation of nuclear bombs.

Undersecretary of State John Bolton was in Israel Sunday on his way to the IAEA meeting in Vienna. He met with Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom and Gideon Frank, the director-general of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission.

Bolton said Russia and the Europeans, particularly Britain, France and Germany, all with relatively close ties to Iran, play a key role in international pressure applied on Iran, and the "European troika" has indicated supporting the ultimatum. The three countries are proposing that a final ultimatum be issued now, demanding full cooperation with the IAEA, rather than waiting until November.

The European Union's "big three" states -- France, Britain and Germany -- have circulated a draft resolution ahead of the IAEA meeting on Iran's nuclear program that falls short of reporting Tehran to the UN Security Council, as Washington would have liked.

The draft text will be revised before being formally submitted to the IAEA Board of Governors, but Western diplomats from some of the 35 board member states said the United States has little support for tough action against Iran now.

The text calls on Iran to dispel worries that it has a nuclear weapons program by November, at which time the board will "probably" consider whether any "further steps" are needed.

One Western diplomat said the vague wording did not lock the board into any particular course of action.

"It includes several possibilities. One is a report to the Security Council, which may or may not lead to economic sanctions," the diplomat said. "Another is that the board might choose to drop Iran from its agenda altogether. Or the IAEA just continues with Iran the way it's been going until now."

The IAEA has been investigating Iran's nuclear program for two years, ever since the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) reported in August 2002 that Tehran was concealing several massive nuclear facilities from the UN watchdog.

It has uncovered many potentially weapons-related activities but has found nothing to confirm U.S. allegations that Iranian has a secret nuclear bomb program.

Iran insists its atomic program is entirely peaceful and aimed solely at generating electricity.

While most IAEA board members oppose the sanctions trigger being suggested by Washington, one diplomat said U.S. negotiators could be "very persuasive."

The United Nations has been probing Iran's nuclear program for two years. While it has uncovered many potentially weapons-related activities it has found no "smoking gun."

Iran has been negotiating with France, Britain and Germany since October 2003, when Tehran promised to suspend its uranium enrichment program in exchange for a wide range of "carrots," including non-military nuclear and other technology and a guarantee that it could keep a peaceful atomic program.

But the EU's "Big Three" have become increasingly critical, accusing Iran of going back on promises to suspend a number of nuclear activities.

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer warned Iran it was taking a risk.

"I hope that it sees and understands that. If not, we could be in a serious situation," he told reporters.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei called on Iran to fully suspend its enrichment program until the agency completed its probe.

"During this delicate phase ... and in light of serious international concerns surrounding the program, (Iran) should do its utmost to build the required confidence," ElBaradei said.

Gary Fitleberg is a Political Analyst specializing in International Relations with emphasis on Middle East affairs.

Copyright © 2004 Gary Fitleberg