Kevin McCullough, September 20, 2004

John Kerry was on the stump talking down to African American audiences on September 11th, saying he would not tolerate any funny business in the counting of the votes in 2004. His umpteenth blatant appeal to a "scandal" in the 2000 election had as much zip as his punch lines usually do. So you can see why he had to fight for his life while recently visiting Iowa and farmers tried to put him in the field to scare off the crows (hat-tip David Letterman).

If John Kerry believes that this race will be decided in another weeks-on-end extension like the 2000 race was, he had best look at the states he believes he's winning in order to even be in that position. Right now Kerry has to play catch-up in three states that Gore took in 2000.

In Pennsylvania it has been tight all the way across. Former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver and Super Bowl great Lynn Swann is a sunny and optimistic African American face that has spoken brightly of what re-electing President Bush means to the state. Combine that with the socially conservative outlook of a state that has two Republican U.S. Senators, and not long ago elected a pro-life Democrat as Governor, it might be easy to understand how President Bush is now eking out a 3-point lead.

In Wisconsin the news is even worse for Kerry. Gore only carried the state by a few hundred votes in 2000. And it appears that the cheese-heads regret having not made a different choice. President Bush has now surged to an 8-point lead with more visits planned in the next 40 days. Kerry doesn't seem to be picking up steam and following the two conventions Wisconsin appears to be leaning more strongly than ever towards President Bush.

Kerry is spending money in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and was prepared to fight on through the tough months of September and October but now comes the really bad news for him - New Jersey. Kerry had previously planned on spending no money in "The Garden State."

To be fair John Kerry could not have predicted the impact that Governor Jim McGreevey's corruption and recklessness would have on his campaign for President. But as the voter's are finding out that Jim McGreevey and John Kerry have used the same fund-raiser, and as they have tasted more and more corruption in the Governor's "I resign, but not until later because the Dems want to hold on to power" speech from last month they are deciding that to send the right message they must vote Republican this time around. In 2000 Gore won New Jersey by nearly 16%. As of the writing of this column and according to the latest poll of likely voters across the state, President Bush bests beyond the margin of error 49%-45%. The internals for the poll are even worse for Kerry. Bush overwhelmingly carries Republicans 92%, is higher among African Americans than he was in 2000, is polling 32% of Hispanics, is carrying 12% of the Democrats, and 45% of the Independents. These numbers all are coming from the most densely populated State per capita in the nation and a total of 15 Electoral College votes up for grabs.

Add to this these facts. In California Bush has closed the gap to 8%. In New York the two most recent polls show gaps of only 7% and 3% when factoring the margin of error. And in Illinois Bush has closed to 4%. And these are all states that Gore won running away.

So let the great "Horse-faced Animatron" (hat-tip Dana Carvey on the Letterman show) continue to flail away in speeches that dull the senses and make us go blind from boredom.

Kerry has much bigger problems on his hands than Florida. Yet strangely it seems he doesn't realize it. He said last week to Time magazine that he was "unaware" of any Bush bounce. Yet when the battle for states has shifted from the "battleground states" we have all heard about for months, to just trying to save face in states you should be in firm command of - and you can't recognize it?

Hmmm, I wonder what that says about your ability to assess problems as a manager and how aggressively you would work to fix them - like if terrorists attacked.

In fact - forget Florida. There may be some of us who, when all the dust settles in November 3rd, may be asking, nay, even demanding election officials to "Recount Massachusetts!"

Kevin McCullough is heard daily in New York City, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware on AM 570 WMCA and AM 970 WWDJ from 1-4pm.