Gary Fitleberg, September 9, 2004

Ayman al-Zawahri, the number two figure in Al Qaeda, appeared in a new videotape aired on Al Jazeera on Thursday, ridiculing U.S. forces as stuck in a quagmire in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"In both countries, if they continue they will bleed to death and if they withdraw they lose everything," said Zawahri, the right-hand man of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

"East and south Afghanistan have become an open arena for the Mujahideen [jihad fighters]. The enemy are limited to their capitals," the Egyptian-born Zawahri said.

"The Americans are hiding in their trenches and refuse to come out to face the Mujahideen, as the Mujahideen shell and fire on them, and cut roads off around them. Their defense is only to bomb by air, wasting U.S. money as they kick up dust."

Zawahri, wearing a white turban with a machine gun at his side, spoke to camera for several minutes.

Turning to Iraq, where U.S. forces are battling an uprising against the U.S.-backed government, he said insurgents had turned Washington's plans for the oil-rich country upside down.

"In Islamic Iraq the Mujahideen have turned America's plan head over heels. The defeat of America in Iraq and Afghanistan has become just a matter of time," he said.

Al Qaeda, Washington's sworn enemy, is blamed for the September 2001 attacks on U.S. cities.

Al Jazeera, an influential Arabic broadcaster, did not say how it obtained the tape.

But it said Zawahri had referred to the Darfur conflict in Sudan, suggesting the video was made in recent months. The Al Qaeda leader cited the crisis as an example of U.S. desires to split the Arab and Muslim world, Al Jazeera said.

Zawahri looked little different from how he has in previous videotapes.

In March, Al Jazeera aired a recorded message, which the CIA said was likely authentic, calling on Pakistanis to overthrow their U.S.-allied government.

Zawahri and bin Laden also appeared in a video aired on Al Jazeera in September 2003 which showed them walking in a mountainous area. It was not clear when the images were recorded.

Pakistan, with U.S. military back-up, has been trying to capture bin Laden, Zawahri and other Al Qaida supporters thought to be hiding in the mountainous region between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which also has a U.S.-backed government.

"In Kabul, the Americans and peacekeeping forces are hiding from the shells of the Mujahideen and expect martyrdom [suicide] attacks at every moment," Zawahri said in Thursday's tape.

The excerpts appeared to be part of a longer message. Al Jazeera said elsewhere on the tape he announced that "the age of security has passed for Americans, and they will not have security until they stop their crimes against Muslims in Iraq, Afghanistan and Palestine."

A CIA official said it would review the tape to determine whether it was authentic.

One U.S. government source scoffed at Zawahri's comments about Americans "hiding in their trenches."

"These guys are in hiding too and that's what they do is hide and then kill innocent men, women and children," the source said.

Some analysts say video and audio messages from bin Laden and Zawahri may be aimed at triggering attacks by followers.

They point to messages in advance of the Bali disco bombing and Limburg tanker attacks in Yemen in 2002, as well as the Madrid bombing earlier this year.

"In some cases messages may have worked as a trigger for attacks, and the Bali bombing stands out as an example," said Ken Katzman, a terrorism expert at the Congressional Research Service in Washington.

"But the jury is still out. Ultimately, I think the key thing is opportunity. When they think they have a shot at the plots actually working out successfully, that is the ultimate determinant of when these attacks go forward."

Gary Fitleberg is a Political Analyst specializing in International Relations with emphasis on Middle East affairs.

Copyright © 2004 Gary Fitleberg