David Parsons, International Christian Embassy Jerusalem
August 26, 2004

Yasser Arafat remains the symbol of Palestinian nationalism, but many are no longer willing to march to his orders.

Yasser Arafat is looking unusually vulnerable these days. King Abdullah II of Jordan has urged him to "take a long look in the mirror" and step down. US Secretary of State Colin Powell cautions not to trust his "yo-yo" promises on reform that always "get pulled back." Arafat’s humble pleas to attend his sister’s recent funeral in Gaza went completely unheeded by Israel. Worse yet, renegades in Fatah are burning his Authority’s offices and kidnapping his generals with impunity. All in all, the aging Palestinian leader has faced the most serious challenge ever to his one-man rule this summer -- and survived.

Nonetheless, the rising levels of frustration with Arafat abroad and the unprecedented signs of rebellion among his own people are clear indicators that his iron grip on power is irretrievably slipping away. At long last, it is fair game to criticise the "Old Man" in public, and leaflets linked to one disgruntled Fatah splinter group even threatened his life. But should Israelis take hope from the rumblings in the Palestinian camp? Or are those behind the reformist revolt just as intractable and devious in the pursuit of peace?

INTRA-FADA - The recent mutiny against Arafat erupted due to widespread disgust with "corruption" within the Palestinian Authority and the lack of any real democratic reforms that would end the thievery. The Palestinian people have been impoverished by the intifada against Israel, despite billions of dollars in sympathetic aid. Meanwhile, Arafat’s cronies seem to be only getting richer.

"Arafat is sitting on the corpses and ruins of the Palestinians at a time when they are desperately in need of a new mentality", former Gaza security chief Muhammad Dahlan recently told the Kuwaiti daily Al Watan. "[$5 billion in donor funds] have gone down the drain, and we don't know where."

The "reformists" ganged up on Arafat from three directions. Threatening to resign, PA prime minister Ahmed Qurei and his cabinet demanded more powers, while Arafat’s critics in the Palestinian Legislative Council sought the same. Meantime, leading Fatah activists and young militants said they no longer viewed Arafat’s regime as the sole decision-maker for their people’s collective aspirations.

All sought an end to the corruption, chaos and uncertainty of direction within the PA, but there was absolutely nothing in their rhetoric to suggest that a softer line towards Israel is waiting in the wings. In fact, the street toughs insisted that Palestinian coffers be focused more squarely on terrorising the Jews.

At the height of the recent intrafada, Fatah gunmen torched PA buildings and abducted policemen and foreigners to protest the cut-off of funds for their ‘military operations’ and Arafat’s appointment of his cousin Musa as head of Gazan police. Meanwhile Arafat fought back by dispatching masked men to shoot a dissident former cabinet minister, among other strong-arm tactics.

Eventually, the reformist revolt descended into an old-fashioned power struggle between rival forces in the next generation jockeying for position in the post-Arafat era.

Dahlan in particular has seen Arafat’s growing weakness, along with Israel’s disengagement plan, as an opportunity for him to wrest control of the Strip from the chairman, who remains trapped in his bombed-out presidential compound in Ramallah. Dahlan supporters trounced Arafat loyalists in local Fatah elections in much of Gaza in July, emboldening him to issue the PA leader with an ultimatum on reforms or face mass demonstrations.

A FITTING END - Arafat has managed to fend off the challenge for now, largely because he remains the living symbol of the Palestinian nationalist movement. But he was undoubtedly whittled down a notch by his own people and a recent poll shows 80% backing for an emergency "unified command" of nationalist and Islamic forces to steer the Palestinians out of their current mess.

Arafat’s hopes for a comeback on the international stage rest on the results of the US elections in November. He is banking on the defeat of President George W. Bush, which he believes will lead to the downfall of Israeli leader Ariel Sharon, the man who vowed to "remove" him some two years ago.

For some reason, Sharon seems to have been the one Israeli leader over the years capable of standing up to Arafat and actually out-foxing him. It would be disastrous for Israel if Arafat were able to boast that he has outlasted Sharon as well.

It is no secret that many Israelis and their friends worldwide have spent years quietly hoping and praying for the demise of Yasser Arafat -- whether by natural means or the IDF’s swift fury. But it would be far more just and fitting if he -- like Saddam Hussein -- were to be judged by his own people for the crimes he has committed against them. Such a turn of events for either man once seemed well beyond belief -- but no longer.

The Next Generation

The Dapper Don: Muhammad Dahlan, former security chief in Gaza, likes to dress sharp, commands a strong Fatah following in the Strip and has won the trust of some American and British officials with his talk of ending corruption. But he is also a childhood friend of Hamas bomb-maker Muhammad Deif, has profited from official graft himself, and was recorded by the CIA ordering a deadly bus attack in Gush Katif in 2001. Cut in Arafat’s mafia-boss image, he could end up ruling Gaza with Hamas.

The Street Fighter: Marwan Barghouti, head of the Fatah Tanzim militia in the West Bank, is currently serving time in an Israeli jail for orchestrating lethal terror attacks. After gaining popularity during the first intifada and prior stints in Israeli prisons, his fiery oratory in defence of the al-Aqsa mosque helped fuel the current uprising. Barghouti once hinted at compromise with Israel in a New York Times column, but preaches the use of terror so long as the "occupation" remains. Despite imprisonment, Barghouti has reportedly just brokered a deal with Hamas for running Gaza after Israel withdraws, thereby outflanking Dahlan. His "clean" image on money matters and credentials as a street fighter make him a more likely candidate to assume Arafat’s mantle one day, but Israel would only set him free if jail-time softens him to the idea of peace with the Jewish state.