Shaky Month Ahead As Sharon Embarks For Washington

David Parsons, International Christian Embassy Jerusalem
April 13, 2004

Emerging from the Passover break, Israel faces a period of uncertainty due to the convergence of three developments over coming weeks: A potential coalition crisis over Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s disengagement plan, the Attorney General’s looming decision on whether to indict Sharon in a bribery scandal, and Hamas threats of massive revenge for the targeting of Ahmed Yassin.

Sharon departed late Monday night for a crucial summit in Washington, where he hopes to extract assurances from US President George W. Bush that will make unilateral withdrawal from Gaza more palatable to Israelis. Sharon must then secure approval for his disengagement plan in a Likud referendum now slated for May 2nd, followed quickly by votes in the cabinet and Knesset.

Some claim Sharon proposed the Gaza pullout to deflect attention away from a series of legal scandals plaguing his family. After extensive investigation and a recommendation to indict from the state prosecutor, new attorney general Menachem Mazuz has promised to announce a decision within weeks on whether to charge the prime minister with taking bribes and other offenses in the so-called "Greek Island affair."

Meantime, Hamas has yet to successfully execute any large-scale terror attacks to avenge the death of its founder and head, Yassin. Some attempts have been thwarted by Israeli security, but it may be that the radical Muslim militia is waiting out a traditional 40-day Islamic mourning period before launching a significant, prearranged response -- which could come sometime in early May.

The hit on Yassin was intended, in part, to prevent Hamas from boasting that its terror campaign was driving the Israelis from Gaza.

Otherwise, an IDF retreat from the Strip looks too much like a reward for terror, making it a hard sell to many Israelis and even to Bush Administration officials concerned that it might undermine their global war on terrorism.

SHARON SHOWS HIS CARDS

Before leaving for Washington, Sharon laid out more details and rationales concerning his disengagement plan on Monday, saying it will help Israel solidify its hold on key blocs of Jewish communities in Judea/Samaria, while shielding the country from unwelcome peace initiatives imposed by outside powers.

"Only Israeli political initiative will retain our strong grasp of the large settlement blocs and security areas," Sharon said in a speech at Ma’aleh Adumim, an eastern suburb of Jerusalem.

He mentioned by name the Jewish towns and enclaves of Hebron, Kiryat Arba, Ma’aleh Adumim, Givat Ze'ev, Ariel and Gush Etzion as places where Israel would retain control.

Sharon added that his strategy would also boost the nation’s sagging economy, attract a "wave of investment," and "allow us a free hand to act against terror."

He insisted that the withdrawal is necessary because the Palestinian Authority has failed to rein in attacks on Israelis and because the diplomatic process is in a "frozen state."

To accomplish all this, Sharon has proposed a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and several isolated settlements in Samaria in order to reduce daily frictions with the Palestinians and redeploy for the foreseeable future behind a new line of defense. The security fence being built on or just inside the 1949 "Green Line" is a key component of this separation scheme.

Israel reportedly would maintain its security presence in the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza/Egypt border and at border crossings and other ports of entry into Gaza. The IDF also wants to retain the right to enter Palestinian areas to pursue terrorists.

Amid stiffening opposition, Sharon has decided to allow 200,000 registered Likud party members to vote on his proposal in a special referendum early next month and several Likud MKs have already signed on to lead the resistance.

Meanwhile, right-wing factions in the coalition are determined to topple the government if the plan passes all its hurdles and settlement leaders are gearing up for several weeks of public protest against evacuations.

AMERICAN SWEETNERS

Before convincing Israelis of the merits of his initiative, Sharon will first try to persuade President Bush in what is being characterized as "critical discussi"ons at the White House on Wednesday.

The two leaders are expected to exchange letters of assurances that have been thrashed out by Israeli and American officials over recent weeks.

According to media reports, Sharon is likely to commit to a near total withdrawal from Gaza and from four settlements in northern Samaria. Sharon will also reaffirm Israel’s commitment to the US-backed roadmap and Bush’s vision of a two-state solution. He may also acknowledge US limitations on the security fence, including that large numbers of Palestinians would not be trapped in "cantons."

In return, Sharon has asked the Bush Administration for a series of American guarantees, including pledges that:

  • Going forward the US will back Israel’s right to operate against terrorism emanating from vacated areas;

  • No other plan will be pushed besides the roadmap;

  • Israel will not be required to return to the pre-1967 borders, thereby tacitly endorsing the future annexation of key settlement blocs; and

  • Palestinian refugees will not be able to return to Israel, but may be absorbed in a future Palestinian state.

    Jerusalem also wants Washington to endorse the planned route of the security fence and to reaffirm its commitment to preserving Israel’s strategic qualitative edge over its potential foes.

    Sources in Jerusalem said the exchange of letters would not occur in public, but that the Americans are not averse to Israel's publication of the letters. The two leaders are expected to make statements on the White House lawn following their discussions.

    Some of the critical wording of the letters may not be finalized until Wednesday's meeting at the White House, but the Bush team appears to have become more reticent on certain issues due to Arab lobbying pressure.

    In particular, the US will probably water down the language on borders and refugees after Palestinian and Arab officials argued Israel’s demands of Washington would predetermine the outcome of final status issues.

    PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei bristled at Sharon’s comments yesterday about retaining control over certain Jewish settlements, saying, "These tactics destroy any hope for peace. We will not accept any settlement blocs."

    "If anyone needs assurances, it's the Palestinians, not Israel," Qurei said. "Palestinian rights should not be affected."

    "Any infringement upon permanent status issues such as the refugees, borders, settlements and Jerusalem will lead to the collapse of the peace process and the road map," added PA Minister of Negotiations Saeb Erekat.

    On Sunday, Bush held a private meeting at his Texas ranch with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Afterwards, Bush and Mubarak said they both agreed that an Israeli decision to withdraw would be a "positive development," but that it should be within the context of the roadmap.

    Before the meeting Bush said that Sharon’s disengagement plan gave Israel freedom to operate against terror and that it opened new possibilities for Israel's economy.

    These are major selling points Sharon needs in hand when he returns on Friday to an Israel poised at a fateful moment in its history.

    David Parsons is the editor of the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem (ICEJ) News Service.

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