What Comes Next in Iraq?

Nick Smith, April 13, 2003

On April 9, we saw jubilant crowds of Iraqis take down statues and pictures of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad. Like the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, it was a spontaneous and heartening celebration of freedom after oppression. At the same time, most resistance collapsed in Iraq and the Iraqi ambassador to the U.N. announced, "The game is over." At our briefing with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that afternoon, he said it had been a good day, but that some cities North of Baghdad continue to hold out and scattered fighting will continue. It was surprising to learn of the recovery of our POWs on April 13 and the very small resistance in Saddam's hometown, Tikrit. This means that the major battle is over. We are now faced with terrorist-type resistance, often being carried out by Syrians or other non-Iraqi's. Another concern was the looting taking place throughout Iraq.

One question to the Secretary was what comes after military victory. The stakes are high. If Iraq were to return to tyranny, its enormous oil wealth could allow it to once again become a destabilizing threat to neighboring countries. The United States is now committed to preventing that from happening by establishing a better government in Iraq that will be accountable to and respectful of the Iraq people. Our record in such efforts, of course, is quite mixed. While we were able to bring durable democracy to Germany and Japan after World War II, more recent efforts have been less successful.

In Germany and Japan, where nation building worked best, we started with an aggressive effort to identify, remove, and punish the major officials of the old regime. At the same time, we removed the institutions in those societies that underpinned the regime’s power and contributed to its tyranny. This is important and has to be done completely. Otherwise, there is a tendency for the new government to follow the practices of the old government. The old ways have to be banished.

Another part of the post-WWII rebuilding was starting small. In both Germany and Japan, we did not start with national elections. Instead, we held local and municipal elections, moving to regional elections, and only then, national elections. This allows people with no experience of democracy to get the hang of it. It also allows strong, new, democratic leaders to emerge from amongst the people. It also takes a little bit of time, more perhaps than many people expect. Two years is reasonable guess for a transition from the current martial law to democracy.

The continuing resistance from France, Germany and Russia in the U.N. Security Council could complicate our plans. The U.N. now oversees the sale of Iraqi oil under the so-called "Oil for Food" program. They threaten to block efforts to remove the sanctions on Iraq, unless of course, they get greater control over the rebuilding effort. I think that it will be impossible for these countries to justify further sanctions on the Iraqi people that prevent rebuilding. And it is important to note that most of the rebuilding is necessary to counteract 20 years of neglect rather than the war.

In the final analysis, the U.N. will play a subordinate role. The rebuilding of Iraq needs to be pursued with the same vigor and boldness that has characterized the military campaign. Only the coalition can provide the necessary leadership.

Congressman Nick Smith represents the 7th District Congressional of Michigan in the U.S. House of Representatives.


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