David Parsons, March 17, 2003

Rather than wait for Saddam Hussein's downfall, US President George W. Bush announced on Friday that the long-awaited "roadmap" to a Middle East peace settlement will be presented to Israel and the Palestinians once the Palestinian Authority confirms a new prime minister. Though the Israeli government welcomed the surprise move, it clearly signaled Jerusalem is being asked to pay a price for shoring up the precarious American alliance against Baghdad.

Bush's announcement came on the same day news broke that he would be meeting in the Azores on Sunday with the embattled prime ministers of Britain and Spain to chart a diplomatic endgame at the United Nations and make final preparations for war in Iraq. With Britain's Tony Blair and Spain's Jose Maria Aznar both facing major domestic opposition to their pro-war stance, the roadmap is being offered up as a last-minute means to bolster their standings at home, and thereby Washington's impeded war plans.

Bush said on Friday that, "immediately upon confirmation [of the Palestinian prime minister], the road map for peace will be given to the Palestinians and the Israelis." He emphasized, however, that the PA prime minister "must hold a position of real authority."

Denying charges the announcement was timed to advance the Iraqi war effort, US officials stressed instead that the roadmap is being released due to the Palestinian legislature's decision last week to create an office of prime minister to share powers with the PA's autocratic ruler, Yasser Arafat. His long-time PLO deputy, Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), is expected to take up the new post within days.

Speaking soon after the Bush announcement, Blair expressed support for the initiative, saying it showed Arab states the "evenhandedness" of US and UK policies in the region. It is necessary, he insisted, to show that "[we are] just as concerned with the Palestinian issue as with the disarmament of Iraq."

Blair said he had spoken to both Arafat and Abu Mazen immediately after Bush's speech, and that he expects Abu Mazen to take office as soon as this week.

The roadmap was drafted over recent months by the "Madrid Quartet" of the US, UN, European Union and Russia even as a trans-Atlantic rift has developed over Iraq. A three-stage plan for a two-state solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the roadmap opens with the Palestinians declaring a ceasefire, implementing reforms and holding new elections, while Israel is to halt all settlement activity and withdraw IDF forces; next, the world would recognize an interim Palestinian state with temporary borders in 2003; and finally a fully independent state would be negotiated by 2005.

Frustrating its European allies, the Bush administration initially delayed the roadmap's release until after Israel's January elections, and more recently suggested it would not be unveiled until after Saddam's fate had been determined. But Bush shifted into high gear on Friday in an obvious bid to rescue Blair, Washington's most important ally in the campaign to disarm Iraq.

To offset his unpopular stand on Iraq, Blair has increasingly championed the Palestinian cause in recent months. Other key European leaders have wanted to avoid a confrontation with Iraq and instead accelerate the drive for Palestinian statehood.

Many Israelis already feared a post-war effort by the US and its European allies to patch up frayed relations with the Arab world by forcing Israel into quick acceptance of an interim Palestinian state. Those concerns have now materialized even before the hostilities commence in Iraq.

EU officials contend the roadmap is meant to "flesh out" of the principles outlined in Bush's landmark speech on the Middle East last June 24, but it differs greatly in spirit and substance. In that earlier address, Bush pre-conditioned US support for Palestinian statehood on a new leadership emerging untainted by corruption and terror.

Bush reiterated his support for Palestinian statehood in Friday's announcement, but said that such a state "must be a reformed and peaceful and democratic state that abandons forever the use of terror."

Bush added, "The government of Israel, as the terror threat is removed and security improves, must take concrete steps to support the emergence of a viable and credible Palestinian state, and to work as quickly as possible toward a final-status agreement. As progress is made toward peace, settlement activity in the occupied territories must end."

In Jerusalem, aides to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said they were informed of Bush's planned remarks on Thursday and assured that it was a welcome development.

"We see eye to eye with President Bush," Yonatan Peled, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, said Saturday. "We share his vision and we are of the conviction that, once there is a Palestinian prime minister with real powers who will begin fighting to stop terror, Israel will be willing to begin discussing a solution."

But several leading American Jewish organizations criticized the announcement, particularly for its timing on the eve of the Azores summit.

Critics worry that Bush has given the nod to Abu Mazen despite his recent comments backing armed attacks against Israeli soldiers and settlers in the disputed territories, not to mention his prior denigration of the Holocaust. These concerns were compounded by reports that the White House may quickly invite Abu Mazen to Washington upon confirmation.

In addition, even top Palestinian officials are admitting that Abu Mazen will not have "real authority," but rather will still be subject to Arafat's whims. On Monday, Arafat will try to ram through changes in the draft law creating the prime minister post that expressly re-affirm him as the "ultimate authority" of the government, and grant him the right to convene cabinet meetings and appoint and fire ministers.

This means that from the outset, Bush risks lowering the standard of compliance expected of the Palestinians in a roadmap that - unlike the failed Oslo process - gives foreign monitors the right to declare when its various stages have been fulfilled.

During a press briefing on Friday, spokesman Ari Fleischer did acknowledge a White House fear that Arafat will retain too much authority over a new prime minister. "It's a question mark. Yasser Arafat has not shown a history of being willing to relinquish power in reality," Fleischer commented.

Israeli officials did take heart from one line in Bush's statement assuring that the two sides would have a chance to comment and offer revisions to the roadmap. "Once this road map is delivered, we will expect and welcome contributions from Israel and the Palestinians to this document that will advance true peace," he stated.

In contrast, the EU has been treating it as a fixed document to be imposed on the parties, and the Palestinians have even claimed US officials assured them that no more changes will be made.

Israel received a draft of the roadmap in December and established a team to submit a formal response when the proper time comes. Sharon's office has also said the response will be brought before the cabinet for approval.

According to Ha'aretz, the Israeli response includes more than 100 amendments to the roadmap, including a demand that the Palestinian leadership publicly declare that it waives its claim to a right of return for refugees.

Israel also now wants to eliminate all mention of an "independent" Palestinian state, replacing it with "certain attributes of sovereignty" and any such state is required to be "credible" and "law abiding."

Israel will also agree to a freeze in settlement activity, but only "following a continuous and comprehensive security calm." It will seek an exception allowing for "natural growth" of settlements to continue as well.

In any event the roadmap is now in play, and Israelis anxious for advance notice of the first shots on Baghdad instead were served notice that they also may soon be in the line of fire.

David Parsons is the editor of the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem (ICEJ) News Service.