Nick Smith, March 2, 2003

"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." -- Winston Churchill

On February 26, the International Relations Committee held a hearing on Russia and its policies toward Iran and Iraq. The witness was Mikhail Margelov, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Russian Federal Council. Margelov is one of the top foreign policy makers in Russia, and I had met him in Russia when I joined the congressional delegation that secured Russian cooperation for the war in Afghanistan.

In recent years our relations with Russia have improved, though they continue to be rocky. Russia has been concentrating on its economic development in the wake of the breakup of the Soviet Union, dropping its once fierce rivalry with the United States. Russian Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin, in particular, have pushed for closer ties with America. Nevertheless, many Russian elites retain some suspicion of American motives and some fear American power or actions when it somehow affects them. Thus, Russia has taken an erratic path, sometimes cooperating with and sometimes obstructing American policy.

This has come to the fore in Iraq. Russia has lent at least verbal support to the French-German push against the use of military force in Iraq. While Russia has not ruled out the use of a veto in the U.N. Security Council, it seems likely they would rather avoid a direct confrontation with the U.S. Margelov and other Russian officials, however, have made it clear that they would like to be compensated for going along. Margelov told our committee that Iraq still owes Russia more than $9 billion and has a number of valuable petroleum contracts with Russian firms and Russia can't afford to lose that money.

I'm sure we'll see similar Russian reluctance to cooperate with U.S. policy with respect to Iran. Since 1995, Russia has been building an $800 million nuclear reactor at Bushehr, which is expected to be complete by 2004 and to be operational 18 months after that. Iran, with its enormous oil reserves, does not need a nuclear plant for power, thus raising suspicions that it is instead an effort to develop nuclear weapons. When concerns over the project were expressed, Margelov told us that there were some safeguards against proliferation at the Bushehr plant. The Russian nuclear industry needed money to survive, and that it would continue to engage in such sales unless money and work became available elsewhere.

Despite the problems, Russia does not want to be our enemy. Russia is turning inward to remake its economy and society after the fall of communism, and they need to trade with the United States. In addition, it was eager to support our efforts against al-Qaeda as it faces security threats from Islamic radicals inside its borders and from the Chinese. As a result, Russia needs our assistance and can ill afford our enmity.

We should encourage economic development and political liberalization in Russia. President Putin and President George Bush have become personal friends. Our cooperation will facilitate the goals of both countries, which will bring Russia's interests more into alignment with our own. Progress will take time, but the rewards can be large for both countries.

Congressman Nick Smith represents the 7th District Congressional of Michigan in the U.S. House of Representatives.