David Parsons, Jan. 24, 2003

Next week's Israeli elections were supposed to be a deadline of sorts for the formal unveiling of the Quartet's "road map" to Palestinian statehood, but the Bush administration may now be postponing its release until that other "day after" - the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

At Jerusalem's request, Washington has delayed for the past two month's any official endorsement or publication of the Middle East peace plan worked out with its Quartet partners, pending Israel's January 28 national elections. To the disappointment of European leaders, US officials explained it was only fair that Israel have time to put its house in order before confronting the latest demands of the international community.

But Paul Wolfowitz, the US deputy secretary of defense, suggested last week that current events may call for another deadline, telling The Washington Post that American efforts "pushing for a Palestinian state will grow" after military action against Iraq.

As if to confirm the point, William Burns, the top US envoy for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is in the Middle East this week to talk primarily about Iraq, not the intifada.

American preparation for a military campaign against Iraq has simply diverted all attention away from the roadmap to Palestinian statehood, according to strategic analysts in Washington, and it will only be unfolded after the dust settles around Baghdad.

Next week will be crucial in both arenas of conflict. On Monday, the United Nations weapons inspectors will report to the Security Council on their renewed searches throughout Iraq. The next day, US President George W. Bush is expected to lay out the case for forcefully disarming the Iraqi regime in his annual State of the Union address to Congress. That same day, Israeli voters go to the polls, while British Prime Minister Tony Blair is scheduled to head for Washington the next morning to finalize what may be war plans against Saddam.

FINDING HARMONY

The "Madrid Quartet" originally surfaced as a forum for four key individuals - US Secretary of State Colin Powell, United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov - to coordinate Western moves in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict after so much diplomatic dissonance during the first year of the violent intifada. A bevy of competing ceasefire plans were undermining each other and one sheet of music was needed.

The Quartet began harmonizing its stand around the "vision" of a two-state solution first outlined by US President George W. Bush in the fall of 2001 as an incentive for Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to declare a truce. But then Israel delivered to Washington the "terror invoices" and other evidence directly implicating Arafat in the on-going terror campaign, and Bush responded with his landmark speech last June 24 pre-conditioning US support for Palestinian statehood on the emergence of a new leadership untainted by corruption and terror.

The shift in American policy was not well received in European circles, and a whole new set of competing peace plans were tabled, some incorporating the Saudi initiative adopted by the Arab League summit in Beirut last year.

But over the past six months, even as tensions over disarming Iraq have built, Powell and his Quartet partners have discreetly crafted the parameters of a so-called "road map" to Palestinian statehood. The EU has pitched this process as a "fleshing out" of the principles outlined in Bush's June 24 speech, though it differs greatly in spirit and substance.

CAMPAIGN FODDER

A draft of the roadmap appeared in Arab papers in late November, just as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon faced off against rival Binyamin Netanyahu for Likud leadership in the run-up to national elections. The plan reportedly calls for three-stages: the Palestinians would declare a ceasefire, implement reforms and hold new elections, while Israel would halt all settlement activity and withdraw IDF forces; next, the world would recognize an interim Palestinian state with temporary borders; and finally a permanent status accord and fully independent state would be negotiated by 2005.

When Netanyahu tried to turn the Likud primary into a referendum rejecting the creation of a Palestinian state, Sharon adopted a rather cavalier attitude on the issue. He suggested such an entity was already "in the making" and that to openly oppose it right now would harm strategic understandings he had quietly worked out with President Bush.

Instead, Sharon has constantly referred back to Bush's June 24 speech as the basis for progress, stressing an absolute end to violence as the first step in a much longer journey to Palestinian independence that will be performance oriented and without deadlines.

In a recent campaign speech at the Weizmann Institute, Sharon reiterated this long-term approach and insisted he has "arrived at an agreed-upon plan with the United States... [after] a long and difficult negotiation process. My seven visits to Washington during the last 18 months have not been easy, and they have certainly not been in vain."

And in an interview with Newsweek published on Sunday, Sharon poured cold water on the Quartet road map altogether, dismissing it as "nothing. Don't take it seriously! There is [another] plan that will work."

European officials were stunned by Sharon's comments, but politely chalked it up to electioneering. Powell, meanwhile, reaffirmed America's commitment to the Quartet's efforts, saying, "We have worked very hard to develop a road map that we believe will give us a way forward."

Nevertheless, Sharon's aides insisted that "within the forum known as the Quartet," Washington and Jerusalem "see eye to eye," while President Bush himself has yet to indicate exactly where he is leaning.

BETWEEN GENTLEMEN

Bush's guardedness has many analysts believing his administration is paying lip service to the Quartet's road map largely to keep European and Arab nations on board for the expected US-led assault on Iraq. Paying homage to the road map is meant to preserve their support, or at least their acquiescence, for toppling Saddam.

Whether this is an accurate picture or not, there is little reason for Washington to commit itself to a set agenda on the Israeli-Palestinian front come next Tuesday. There are simply too many questions and too many variables at present.

For instance, how long will a military campaign against Baghdad last? Will it succeed in deposing Saddam's regime and will a stable, democratic Iraq emerge? Will Saddam attack Israel - either directly or through proxies in Lebanon and elsewhere? Will Hizb'Allah open a second front on Israel's northern border? Will Israel retaliate for any such provocations, thereby shearing off Arab support?

Meantime, although Sharon looks poised to win re-election, there is no guarantee he will be able to cobble together a ruling coalition that supports the creation of a Palestinian state - either in the short term or long term. If he does succeed, Sharon also would need more time to develop a response to the Quartet's road map.

Israel may be given a reprieve on the road map for now, but some of her friends abroad - and even her own leaders - are warning that it could be finalized and forced on Israel in the wake of an Iraqi defeat, just as the 1991 Madrid conference - with Jerusalem paying the price to appease Arab dictators.

Sharon insists that he has a gentleman's agreement with Bush that such will not happen. But the most public rift between the two came on this very point - when the Israeli premier warned his country would not be sacrificed like Czechoslovakia in 1939.

David Parsons is the editor of the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem (ICEJ) News Service.