David Parsons, Jan. 21, 2003

With one week to go before the Israeli elections, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Likud party appear to have weathered the media onslaught of corruption allegations, leaving Labor candidate Amram Mitzna all but admitting defeat. In his place, the crusty leader of Shinui, Yosef "Tommy" Lapid, is emerging as the key figure in the post-election wrangling to form a coalition government.

The Likud was still sliding in the polls when Sharon went on Israeli television nearly two weeks ago to answer charges involving a loan from a South African businessman to his sons to repay an illegal 1999 campaign contribution. Labor leaders had exploited the brewing scandal, demanding that Sharon come clean or resign.

But when the head of the state elections commission pulled the plug on Sharon for "electioneering" halfway thru the press conference, many voters felt the prime minister indeed was being treated unfairly by the left and its media allies and began returning to the Likud fold. From that moment, the party began marking its recovery in the polls, which also showed that the Labor strategy to brand Sharon as a "godfather" was backfiring.

Within days, the margin between the two traditional heavyweights of Israeli politics began to grow again, from a gap as slim as three Knesset seats to as many as 12. With Labor dropping below 20 mandates in some surveys, Mitzna's campaign team decided on a new strategy to halt defections to the centrist Shinui faction.

At his own press conference last week, Mitzna expressly ruled out Labor joining Sharon in a unity government after the elections. The announcement was aimed primarily at keeping left-of-center voters from switching to Shinui, which has been pushing for a secular, Zionist unity government minus the ultra-religious parties Shas and United Torah Judaism.

Mitzna's maneuver, however, stirred a ruckus within Labor ranks and failed to budge the party's dismal standing in the polls. One Labor insider explained that, in the eyes of the public, opposing unity during time of national crisis was as unpopular as saying you opposed peace.

Some Laborites complained that Mitzna was essentially conceding the race, and a move is now afoot to dump him in favor of party elder Shimon Peres, who would capture up to 30 Knesset slots according to the latest Ma'ariv survey.

Meanwhile, Shinui has continued to strengthen its support over the past week, climbing to as high as 17 seats and threatening to eclipse Labor as the second largest party in the 120-member parliament. That prospect has drawn fresh focus on the militantly secular party and its feisty chairman.

Shinui, meaning "change," is a relative newcomer on the Israeli political scene. It was founded by liberal MK Avraham Poraz in the mid 1990s to fight against the undue power held by the haredi community, the strict ultra-Orthodox Jewish sects that have joined virtually every Israeli government over the past five decades in exchange for control over key ministries and massive government benefits for its constituency.

The colorful Lapid, a Holocaust survivor, was a writer and food critic before shooting to notoriety as a gruff, straight-talking TV commentator on a popular Israeli political talk show. Lapid took special delight in bashing the ultra-Orthodox, prompting Poraz to recruit him for party leader ahead of the 1999 national elections. The faction garnered six Knesset seats - giving Lapid a higher platform to voice his views but not yet making him a player.

This time, however, Shinui has successfully tapped into mass resentment of the haredi sector for avoiding work, taxes and army duty, even as the country faces steep economic and security challenges due to the violent Palestinian intifada. The party's "clean" image also is attracting a large protest vote from those tired of the campaign scandals plaguing both Labor and Likud.

The Shinui platform remains almost exclusively anti-haredi and Lapid has learned to live with comparisons to American television's favorite bigot, Archie Bunker. But on the existential questions of the day - namely how to handle the Palestinians - he remains largely non-committal, preferring not to turn off voters left or right.

Lapid did concede in a Newsweek interview last week that he no longer favors negotiating with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, labeling him as passé. "So long as he's alive and leading the Palestinians, there will be no peace," he insisted.

Rather, Lapid would negotiate with more moderate Arab leaders, even before a ceasefire is reached, while ultimately demanding a guaranteed end to terrorism.

This appears to mirror the opinion of a great many Israelis. Although the electorate has been driven to the right by Palestinian terrorism, a majority is still open to a compromise that will end the conflict. But they do not view Arafat and his regime as a reliable peace partner, nor do they perceive Mitzna and Labor as the party suitable to handle future negotiations.

Instead, even though things have not improved that much under Sharon, they trust him to drive a tougher bargain when the time comes for resumed peace talks. And judging by current headlines concerning the Madrid Quartet's draft "roadmap" to Palestinian statehood, that time could come very soon - even before Sharon has finished forming a coalition.

Next Tuesday, Sharon will likely emerge with a stronger Knesset base to continue as prime minister, but must choose between a narrow government of the religious/nationalist camp or a broad, secular coalition as demanded by Lapid. Sharon has publicly expressed a preference for reviving his national unity government with Labor, fearing smaller right-wing factions will tie his hands in renewed peace talks spearheaded by the US.

Labor's Mitzna, however, remains adamantly opposed to such a partnership with Sharon and insists the Likud would never break ranks with their traditional ultra-Orthodox allies. Yet many in and outside Labor advise not to take Mitzna's pledge seriously, especially since he may be ousted quickly following the election defeat, thus making Shinui's dream of Israel's first haredi-less government attainable at last.

To accomplish this goal, Lapid will have to broker a deal that soothes over bruised egos in Labor and convinces triumphant but timid Likudniks that life without the ultra-religious factions will be just fine. That would make him the new kingmaker of Israeli politics.

David Parsons is the editor of the International Christian Embassy Jerusalem (ICEJ) News Service.