International Christian Embassy Jerusalem, Dec. 17, 2002

Despite the fact that Israeli security forces have argued the opposite for months, the Israeli cabinet no longer believes Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat would cause more trouble outside the country than currently is doing from his Ramallah headquarters, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Recent remarks attributed to Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz and Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon are being interpreted as underlining a growing consensus within the government that Arafat is the primary obstacle standing in the way of negotiations with the Palestinians.

Following Sunday's Cabinet meeting a senior Israeli official indicated that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon would be minded to respond positively to the emergence of a more moderate Palestinian leadership, by considering the "repositioning" of some settlements - perceived as a major obstacle to any future peace deal. The Israeli government, however, remains committed to any such moves, only with the end of terror and genuine Palestinian Authority reform.

According to the Defense establishment in Israel, there can be no emergence of a new PA leadership as long as Arafat remains on the scene, despite the fact that two of his potential successors, Muhammed Dahlan, and Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), are now essentially in control of the Palestinian Legislative Council and are poised to take over once Arafat is removed from power.

Since Israel managed to convince the US administration to sideline Arafat as a potential partner for peace earlier this year, the Palestinian leader has become alienated from his former Western allies, and even some Arab neighbors such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Nevertheless, Israeli officials believe that it will take a mega-terror attack for him to be expelled.

While the Cabinet discussed Arafat's long-term future on Sunday, Sharon made it clear that the Palestinian leader will not be allowed to leave Ramallah to attend the Christmas celebrations in Bethlehem. However, Sharon insisted that religious freedom for all Palestinian Christians, Israeli Arabs and tourists will be guaranteed. Chief of Staff, Ya'alon, meanwhile committed Israeli troops to a low-profile presence, while retaining security control.