International Christian Embassy Jerusalem, Nov. 29, 2002

Reeling from the growing mood of unrest following the assassination of a senior US diplomat at the end of October, Jordan's moderate establishment is beginning to fear the endemic rise of militant Islamic terrorism.

Fresh clashes in the southern town of Maan on November 24 saw at least two more people killed, and two others injured when Islamic terrorists opened fire on a police patrol, prompting the army to immediately impose a citywide curfew.

Just weeks earlier, violence had engulfed Maan, a stronghold of radical Islam, after the government promised to "punish" the killers of US diplomat Lawrence Foley. When police cracked down on a local armed gang accused of murder, drug and weapons trafficking and other "terrorist" activities, five were killed in rioting, including two police officers. But the alleged ringleader, Muhammade Shalabi, evaded arrest.

Jordan's intellectual and political elite remains among the more moderate in the Middle East. The youthful King Abdullah II retains strong personal and political ties with European nations, is supportive of the US war on terror and like many Arab leaders, is not averse to a regime change in Iraq, (preferring, nevertheless, to stay on the sidelines of any US-led military campaign to topple Saddam Hussein).

Jordan is the only Arab nation to have a free trade agreement with Washington, and despite a strong domestic campaign for an anti-US economic boycott, American imports rose by 26% in the first quarter of this year.

While fighting its own war against terror at home, Jordan has expressed strong fears that Israel would exploit a war in Iraq to "transfer" hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from the battle-scarred West Bank to Jordan.

In the latest evidence of an on-going border blockade, some 3,000 Palestinian Muslims wanting to make the mini-hajj pilgrimage via Jordan to Mecca were stranded this past week on the Israeli side of the Allenby Bridge border crossing over the Jordan River. Israeli authorities said they were free to pass, but Jordan blocked their entry, forcing many to sleep on the ground.

The incident highlighted the underlying tension between the Palestinian Authority and Jordan over the prospects of "transfer." Jordan fears that if allowed to travel through the Kingdom en route to Saudi Arabia, many would decide to stay, joining the more than 60% of the kingdom's residents who already identify themselves as Palestinians.

According to Palestinian Authority Interior Minister, Hani al-Hassan, the Hashemite kingdom is so obsessed with the fear of transfer that it has imposed severe restrictions on the entry of Palestinians into the kingdom, stranding thousands of would-be pilgrims, many of whom have been camping near the Allenby Bridge for weeks.

The Jordanians have justified blocking the pilgrims on the grounds that many of them are ultimately planning to settle in Jordan. Beneath the official explanation lies a deep running mistrust in the upper echelons of Jordanian society of the Palestinians, who are considered to be a magnet for Islamic extremism, terror and unrest.