David Parsons, Nov. 21, 2002

With the Labor party drifting further left this week, electing the dovish Amram Mitzna as its new chairman, Likud rank-and-file will decide next Thursday between newly centrist Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and the resurgent hawk, Foreign Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. While Netanyahu is articulating policies more in keeping with traditional thinking in the nationalist camp, polls indicate most Likud voters will opt for the steady hand of leadership provided by Sharon over the past two years of Palestinian terror and violence.

That terrorism continued on Thursday, as a Palestinian suicide bomber slipped into the southwest Jerusalem suburb of Kiryat Menachem and detonated his payload on a crowded bus during morning rush hour, killing at least 11 Israelis and wounding 40 others.

The deadly blast came a day after Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat welcomed Mitzna’s election as head of Labor, saying the two would be able to complete the "peace of the brave" started by the late Yitzhak Rabin.

Meanwhile at the scene of the bombing, Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert angrily blamed the terror attack on Arafat’s regime, but also suggested it would have little "political significance" – meaning the Sharon government was not likely to launch a huge military response in the midst of an election season and a pending US-led war with Iraq. Having just endorsed Sharon in the Likud race, Olmert’s comments reflected the clear lines being drawn between the current prime minister and his chief rival.

Netanyahu insists Sharon has been simply trying to endure the Palestinian war of attrition until a political solution arises, whereas he would aggressively act to change the situation, starting with the expulsion of Arafat.

The Sharon camp has shot back that such actions would be "rash and irresponsible," playing specifically on Netanyahu’s perceived weaknesses among voters as identified in recent opinion polls.

After promising last week to focus his campaign on the nation’s economic crisis, Netanyahu has now framed the upcoming primaries as a Likud referendum on Palestinian statehood. Netanyahu said this week that he would not support the establishment of a Palestinian state under any circumstances, would not stay in a Sharon-led cabinet that accepted such a state as inevitable, and even grouped Sharon with the dovish Mitzna on the issue.

Sharon shot back that such comments had "done a great deal of damage" to Israel abroad and that leadership "is not built through words and slogans."

Netanyahu began riding the issue for two reasons. First, Sharon again acknowledged last week that he was resigned to the eventual creation of a Palestinian state, even suggesting it was already in formation. In addition, the revised version of the Madrid Quartet’s "road map" to an Israeli-Palestinian settlement was leaked to the Arab press earlier this week and it indicates that Israel will be required to unconditionally endorse an interim Palestinian state in 2003.

Since then, several top Likud cabinet ministers have joined Olmert in endorsing Sharon’s candidacy, while also shying away from press queries as to their own stand on Palestinian statehood.

The Likud central committee adopted a resolution several months ago opposing any Palestinian state "west of the Jordan river," seen at the time as a win for Netanyahu. But after a registration drive that has swelled party ranks to over 300,000 members, it is the Likud masses that will settle the question on November 28, and polls are showing them leaning towards Sharon.

The Netanyahu campaign concedes that Sharon indeed enjoys a lead, but they point out that different polls are showing differing results. While one brand new survey shows the Sharon advantage expanding to 17%, another has the gap narrowing to 6%.

Pollsters are also finding that next week’s victor is almost certain to become prime minister on January 28, and thus the Likud primaries could ultimately determine Israel’s position on the fateful issue of Palestinian statehood.

Feeling the heat, Sharon’s aides assure that he has reservations about the "road map," which will be conveyed to the United States after the elections. They explain that Sharon foresees any Palestinian state arising only after long-term interim arrangements and the complete cessation of terror, but that making it a divisive campaign issue is unwise.

Interestingly, the Labor party allowed Sharon to stake out the center ground when it selected Mitzna, the Haifa mayor and former IDF general, as its candidate for prime minister. In his rush to establish his leftist credentials, Mitzna ignored what may have been Labor’s best hope for a quick turn-around of its tumbling fortunes – adopting the Quartet’s "roadmap" to peace as its own platform. Instead, he promised a unilateral withdrawal of all Israeli soldiers and residents from Gaza, plus the immediate resumption of peace talks with the Palestinians even without a ceasefire, steps far beyond what the road map requires.

It appears that Likud voters may like Netanyahu’s policies, but they also are taking into account that Sharon’s newly earned moderate image will play better among the general electorate come January. Once he has a stronger base in the Knesset, they also are trusting that the old "Arik " – with or without "Bibi" at his side – will stand up to international pressure to fast track a Palestinian state.

David Parsons is the editor of International Christian Embassy Jerusalem (ICEJ) News.