International Christian Embassy Jerusalem, Nov. 19, 2002

Over 100,000 Israeli Labor Party members will vote today (Tuesday) to determine their next leader and Prime Ministerial candidate, with Haifa Mayor, Amram Mitzna taking a commanding lead in recent polls over his closest challenger, current leader and former Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer.

Supporters of Knesset Member, Haim Ramon, privately admit the third placed candidate would do well to make double figures.

The vote, essentially between the moderate Ben-Eliezer and dovish Mitzna, a newcomer to the national political scene, is seen by many as a verdict Labor’s involvement in Ariel Sharon’s National Unity Government over the past 18 months. Speaking on the eve of polling, Mitzna re-iterated his campaign platform – unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and immediate re-commencement of peace negotiations with Yasser Arafat’s Palestinian Authority, with or without a cessation of terror.

"Negotiations will begin immediately," Mitzna told CNN news on Tuesday, adding that even if the Palestinians are not yet prepared to come to the negotiating table, "hopefully they will be ready when I become Prime Minister."

Ben-Eliezer, meanwhile appears to be suffering the effects of taking the party out of the national unity government too late to save his leadership. The walk-out over the budget barely a month ago led to the collapse of the government and the calling of new elections scheduled for January 28.

But the move does not seem to have improved Ben-Eliezer’s standing with Labor members on the left after being in charge of the Israeli military during the most sustained period of Palestinian terrorism in the country’s history. "Faud" as Ben-Eliezer is known, is seen as complicit in the increased militarism of Sharon’s anti-terror campaign – with few trophies for the party’s left-wing, save the dismantling of a few disputed settlement outposts.

Nevertheless, both candidates have been anxious to down play the polls, which put Mitzna ahead of Ben-Eliezer by 52% to 29%, recognizing that voter turn-out will be the crucial deciding factor.

"The most important thing is that the voters turn out and don't decide to stay home because they see polls saying the victory is guaranteed," Mitzna said, keen not underestimate his rival who has come from behind to win the leadership in the past.

"Until now I have never lost, but there are no guarantees in politics, and you have to be ready for every eventuality," Ben-Eliezer said.

Elsewhere in the electoral run up, the ultra-orthodox Shas Party which is thought to have over-performed in the 1999 elections with 17 seats (only two less than Ariel Sharon’s Likud), appears to be falling apart amidst polls predicting a 50% collapse in popular support. Several MKs are being courted by the Party’s spiritual mentor, Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef in attempts to dissuade them from leaving Shas in favor of the fledging orthodox competitor, Ahavat Yisrael.

In the National Religious Party, controversial leader Effie Eitam faces what may be his third consecutive defeat in efforts to determine the party's course. MKs have already rejected Eitam’s plans to merge with the National Union and to guarantee certain persons slots on the Knesset list, they are now showing resistance to his desire to place a woman in the 5th slot on the Knesset list. Polls currently show the party dropping from five MKs to four.